October 09, 2012
Embraer expects the business aviation market to remain down for the rest of the year, despite record corporate profits and a record number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs). But Embraer Executive Jets President Ernest Edwards, speaking to reporters in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil, believes those trends will position the industry to take off in the future.
“Market recovery is in slow motion,” Edwards says. Corporate profits are topping $2 trillion and HNWIs, defined as individuals with disposable income of more than $1 million, have amassed more than $40 trillion in wealth. GDP, meanwhile, has stabilized at 2.1%, but is expected to edge back up to 3% by 2016.
While this foretells growth long term, Edwards says for now, “that money is not being spent.”
The improvement in the used market appeared to halt in the third quarter, a trend Edwards says the company hopes is temporary. He couldn’t say what spurred a recent uptick in used aircraft inventory, whether it reflects trade-ins or fractional aircraft coming on the market. The recovery of business jet traffic also is a little slower than the company would expect, he says, noting it is tracking closely to 2011 levels.
The Brazilian manufacturer, which keeps a rolling outlook of forecast deliveries, is projecting a slow improvement in business jet deliveries that will amount to 9,300 units worth $246 billion through 2022. But Embraer also is closely watching a number of variables, such as a volatile market in Europe, which could reduce the overall numbers to 7,870 deliveries valued at $205 billion over the next 10 years.
North American will continue to dominate, taking 46% of new aircraft for a total of 4,000-4,300 aircraft valued at between $89-$107 billion through 2022.
China increases to 7% of the deliveries at 400-650 business jets valued at up to $24 billion. The European, Middle East and Africa regions account for 29% of deliveries at between 2,180-2,700 units valued at up to $82 billion.
“North America continues to be the wealthiest region,” Edwards says, with a larger number of HNWIs. But Asia Pacific also has a high percentage of HNWIs.
He concedes that is down from past forecasts, but says a number of measures are showing strength for the future. Interest is picking up with corporate departments, priming themselves to begin to turn over what is becoming an aging fleet.