September 16, 2013
Brazilian aircraft-maker Embraer, which recently flew its first Legacy 650 to be built in China, is predicting a market for more than 800 business jets in China over the next decade.
Embraer has released its China Executive Aviation Market Outlook 2014-2023, forecasting a demand for 805 executive jets. Of those aircraft, 51% will be large-cabin aircraft, representing 78% of the value, the company says.
The Chinese business jet fleet has grown at an average annual rate of 27%, nearly matching the 26% annual growth in Chinese citizens classified as wealthy during 2007-2012.
Embraer sees more demand for use of executive jets for business and leisure travel as airlines have limited schedules. Embraer also sees a growth in infrastructure with the number of fixed-base operations expected to increase to nine, up from the current five.
While a positive outlook for the market, Embraer’s forecast is more conservative than that of Bombardier, which sees as many as 1,000 business jet deliveries in the nation over the next decade. Bombardier, which in June released its business jet forecast, sees China becoming the third-largest market for new business jet deliveries, and predicts deliveries will grow to more than 1,400 in the subsequent 10 years. Honeywell likewise has seen strong growth in the market, noting demand from the Asia Pacific region in general remains “well above the world average.”
Embraer has received orders and options for 38 business jets in China since 2004, when its first executive jet was delivered in the region. But the manufacturer has made investments with the hope of having a stake in the market as it expands.
This includes the agreement signed in June 2012 with China’s Avic to cooperate on Legacy 600 and 650 program using the infrastructure of the joint venture, Harbin Embraer Aircraft Industry Co., which originally was intended to build Embraer regional jets. The first 650 to roll of the assembly line there flew last month and is scheduled for delivery by year’s end.
“Embraer’s decade-long investment in China’s commercial aviation market has resulted in a fleet of 120 commercial jets in service, and we are now building our presence in the Chinese executive aviation market,” says Guan Dongyuan, senior vice president at Embraer and president of Embraer China.