Therefore, it is prudent to think in terms of scenarios. Our low-case scenario for total retirements in 2010-19 is 6,000. This model includes falling fuel prices , increasing interest rates and possibly delays in one or more aircraft introductions. Our high-case scenario for retirements is 8,000 units, or 800 aircraft per year. This situation assumes a continuation of low interest rates, high fuel costs and new-aircraft production targets being met.
Regardless of which case proves true, the balance of this decade promises to provide an interesting journey for the aircraft MRO business.