November 19, 2012
Boeing’s 20-year Latin America forecast predicts no market for very large aircraft, such as the 747-8 or the Airbus A380, the company’s VP-marketing said at the ALTA Airline Leaders Forum.
Boeing estimates that Latin America’s aviation market will grow 6.6% per year by 2031. Airlines in the region will need 2,510 aircraft in this period, Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP-Marketing Randy Tinseth said in Panama City, Panama.
Most of the region’s growth will be within South America and not on long-haul international routes, said Tinseth. To fuel this traffic pattern, airlines in the region will need 2,080 single-aisle aircraft by 2031.
Some of this intra-South America traffic will require twin-aisle aircraft. Tinseth cited LAN Airlines’ Lima-Buenos Aires flight operated by a Boeing 787 as an example of this trend. In addition, AviancaTaca announced an order for three additional 787s, which signals the strength of demand for twin-aisle aircraft in Latin America.
However, Tinseth noted that Boeing forecasts no demand for very large aircraft. This view is in contrast to Airbus’s forecast for a market for 40 very large aircraft in the region in the next 20 years.