A fourth measure is the size of the parked fleet, which has been relatively flat. The next category is lease rates and residual values, and these have been “very strong” in the past few years, says Zolotusky. Any perceived softness in lease rates has more to do with low interest rates, and lease rates are particularly high when adjusted for interest rate movements.
The sixth aspect Boeing considers is whether there is any “exogenous obsolescence” occurring. This term refers to a situation where the demand and value for a particular type of aircraft drops due to an external pressure not related to the overall aircraft market. There are no such circumstances at the moment, says Zolotusky.
Overall, there is a very strong market for aircraft, with healthy long-term demand, Zolotusky says. He also believes there will be enough funding available to finance future deliveries, although the composition of that funding is undergoing change.
For example, reliance on export credit agencies is on the wane, while capital markets are expected to continue to be the fastest-growing financing source for new aircraft. U.S. airlines have relied heavily on this type of financing for years, and now the Cape Town Convention, which came into force in 2006, is making it possible for airlines in other countries to do the same.