SINGAPORE — The upcoming withdrawal of U.S.-led NATO forces from Afghanistan may lead to an increase in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the country as well as in neighboring Pakistan.

The former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry, says: “Drones play a very important role in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Even with 100,000 U.S. troops on the ground, the terrain of Afghanistan and Pakistan in the border areas is difficult. The impossibility of accessing these areas, to counter the plans of Al Qaeda and the [Taliban-allied] Haqqani clan, has created a sanctuary inside Pakistan.”

This means that “drones are absolutely essential for reconnaissance and strike” capability, he says. “The reduction of U.S. forces in Afghanistan will not change that. Drones may play an even more important role than they play” currently, he notes.

Eikenberry remarks June 18 were part of his keynote speech at the IISS Fullerton Lecture here.

Pakistan’s government has repeatedly called on the U.S. to stop using UAVs over Pakistan, arguing it infringes on the country’s sovereignty. The U.S., however, argues that Pakistan’s border areas have become a sanctuary for terrorists who mount attacks against NATO forces in neighboring Afghanistan.

NATO forces in Afghanistan currently total around 130,000, but most are due to leave by the end of 2014, after which time a much smaller NATO mission will remain to train and advise Afghan forces. At the NATO summit in Chicago in May, alliance leaders endorsed an exit strategy that calls for their forces to hand control of the country over to Afghan forces by the middle of next year.

Eikenberry says the Afghan security forces total 346,000 and there is a plan to add 6,000 by year-end. Of the total, the Afghan army accounts for 195,000, he says. In 1985, when Afghan forces were fighting against Russia’s occupation of the country, the Afghan army had 90,000 personnel, he notes.

“There is a risk of Afghanistan becoming a national security state in which the resources that the security forces consume” are much greater than those in the private sector, he says.