Expect to see sizeable spending increases from Latin America/Caribbean operators, whose share of widebody HMV spending will more than double over the next three years to $15 million from $7 million. Likewise, African operators are expected to generate $20 million in HMV business next year, but increase that figure by 30% in 2015.
The largest number of widebody aircraft, in descending order, are based in the U.S., United Arab Emirates (UAE), China, England, Hong Kong, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. Consequently, most of the business for HMVs in terms of visits and money spent will come from these countries. For instance, the U.S. will average 160 HMV visits per year over the next 24 months, but drop to about 120 in 2-3 years. This will decrease U.S. HMV spending by 30%.
China, with a widebody fleet of 225, will average about 40 annual HMVs for the next three years, putting it in second place, although it will rank third in spending. For China, HMV spending shows year-over-year increases from $37 million over the next 12 months, to about $75 million in 2015.
UAE widebody HMV spending is estimated at $27 million, rising to over $63 million within three years, for a gain of about 130%.
Compared with the HMV market opportunities, widebody C check spending will drop from $960 million over the next 12 months to just $800 million in 2015. That comes as no surprise, given that the high point of C checks will take place in 2013 with about 1,800, and decline by 11-12% to just over 1,600 in 2015.
North America, Europe and Asia will generate the highest C check widebody expenditures in the forecast period, but the numbers are dropping in each region. This is partly attributable to longer C check intervals. The North American carriers will spend about $300 million in 2013, while European carriers will generate about $270 million in widebody C check business.
Asia's share also will decline over the next 36 months, with $210 million in 2013, but just $190 million three years later. Another example of a significant decline in C check spending is the Middle East sector, which will account for about $130 million in 2013, but under $100 million by 2015.
The U.S. will be the most lucrative market for C checks over the coming three years, with the largest number of airframes, and the most money spent. For the next 36 months, annual C checks are projected to be about 450, although as with the HMVs, the U.S. carriers will spend progressively less. In that regard, the estimate is about $273 million over the next 12 months, $264 million in the following 12, and $251 million in the remaining 12, for almost a 10% decrease.
The UAE will be the second-largest C check market, at least with respect to visits, for most of the next three years, specifically over the next 12 months, and the last 25-36 months, with China taking second place during the 13-24-month period. However, C check visits from the UAE, projected for almost 110 in 2013, will fall to about 90 in 2015. That will result in a spending drop of about 20% to $35 million in 2015, down from the nearly $44 million projected during 2013. This ranks third in spending behind the U.S. and England, which is also expected to show decreasing spending on C checks.
In fact, British carriers, expected to make nearly 100 C check visits in 2013, will have about half that number over the next 36 months. That group is expected to contract for $78 million in C checks over the next 12 months; $52 million for the subsequent 13-24 months, and $43 million for the final 12 month period, for about a 45% reduction.