The 767 also appears in the top three through 2015 in terms of estimated HMV spending, accounting for more than $190 million for the next year. This is just ahead of the $185 million projected for the McDonnell Douglas MD-11, with 143 aircraft, mostly in cargo service, operating worldwide. The 747 will jump into first place in terms of spending by 2015, with over $260 million.
For C checks, the A330 leads the C market, in terms of number of visits, with an average of 425 annual visits. The 767 holds second place over the next three years, with an average of 330 per year. The 777 will hold a consistent third place, averaging 262 yearly. In terms of spending, the 767 will be the C check leader, even though the amount of money spent will decline in each of the next three 12-month periods, from more than $240 million in 2013 to under $200 million in 2015, for about a 15% drop.
The 747 and the A330 jockey for second place in C check spending, with the A330 coming in behind the first-place 767 in 2015, with expenditures of about $164 million. Operators of the 747 C check will spend more than $215 million in the next year, dropping to $185 and $145 million for years 2014 and 2015.
By 2014-15, the Boeing 787 will start to require its first C checks, with a projected spend of about $310 million.
Cargo giant FedEx will be the big market-mover in widebodied aircraft major checks, with its mixed fleet totaling nearly 250 aircraft in service. Expectations are that the carrier will generate 45 HMVs and 121 C checks, on average, over the next 36 months, leading all other operators in both categories.
FedEx will spend an estimated $163 million on HMV checks over the next 12 months; $156 million for the subsequent 13-24 months, and about $105 million in months 25-36. The carrier's C check spending is predicted to be $76 million—$72 million for the first and second 12-month periods, respectively. This is predicted to increase to $76 million for the final 25-36 months. Those numbers will assure FedEx's position as a leading buyer of widebody maintenance services over the forecast period.
Looking at the Aviation Week numbers in aggregate, operators of the global widebody airline fleet of nearly 4,000 aircraft should spend about $1 billion per year on HMVs from 2013-15.
Asia-Pacific airlines operate more than 1,200 widebodies, compared to nearly 1,100 operating in North America and over 800 in Europe's fleet. Middle Eastern airlines fly nearly 600 widebodies. Airlines in Africa only fly about 120 widebodies and 100 are based in the Latin American/Caribbean region.
Focusing on the number of HMV checks, North American operators will account for the majority for the next two years, with about 170 annually, but by 2015, will drop into third place behind Asia and Europe, with approximately 130. Asia-Pacific, in fact, shows steady growth with 120 and 150 HMV checks annually—in 2013 and 2014—jumping into first place by 2015 with over 190. Europe's HMV trajectory will grow about 30% over the three-year period.