“Where are they going to go?” he asks. “There is no part-out market. That will have a major impact on the residual value of those airplanes, because there is not anywhere to go with them.”
Prices on some nice ERJ 145s already have dropped below $2 million, he says. Converting the aircraft for VIP use has been discussed, he says, but that has not worked for the CRJs.
CRJs are not faring much better, he notes. The grounding of CRJ-operator Comair by its parent company, Delta Air Lines, is making it difficult to part out CRJs for much money, and the going rate for the -100s and -200s is $1 million-3.5 million. Nonetheless, Moabery says, operators believe they can get a better deal on engine maintenance under GE's policy and that makes the CRJ more marketable.
“I think, long-term, GE's philosophy on the aftermarket is going to emerge the victor,” he says.