The demand for -500s is less than for the other Classics because they are smaller—a particular disadvantage with the escalation in jet fuel prices—and none are being converted to freighters, which give aging passenger aircraft new leases on life. Marana Aerospace Solutions, a parting-out specialist, has another half-dozen -500s already lined up for this year.
Two other 737 models are being retired even younger: eight 737-600s were retired last year at an average age of about nine, and 11 737-700s at just over 12. The data also shows 10 MD-90s retired at an average age below 15—all of them Saudi Arabian Airlines aircraft that were purchased by AerSale.
Among widebody aircraft, Boeing 747-400 retirements doubled to 24, at an average age below 21. Airlines are replacing 747s primarily with the more efficient Boeing 777-300ERs. With the market for conversions of larger freighters having dried up, the prospect for a significant slowdown in 747 retirements seems slim.
The data also shows 767-300 retirements more than tripled, to 11 from three, at an average age of 23 years, and 767-200 retirements rose to 14 from six at an average age just over 24. The 767's future retirement pace will depend on what happens with Boeing's 787.
MD-11s also are starting to hit the part-out market: 10 were retired last year at an average age below 19 years.
But some of these individual aircraft trends are not likely to continue.
For example, the long-term impact of 737-600 retirements will be muted: Boeing has only delivered 69 of them (all between 1998 and 2005), and only 54 are still in service.
AerSale still has another 10 MD-90s it acquired from Saudi Arabian Airlines that are candidates for retirement in the next year or two. But Delta Air Lines is flying more than 50 MD-90s, most of the rest of the models in operation, and the airline has no near-term plans to retire them. In fact, it recently signed purchase agreements for 23 MD-80s for spare parts for its MD-88 and MD-90 aircraft.
Avolon, a Dublin-based aircraft lessor, argues that the recent decline in retirement ages will not last. It notes that Airbus A320 family and 737 Classic fleets are relatively young, so airlines retiring the oldest and least efficient of those aircraft are driving down the average. By the time the airlines finally retire the younger ones, Avolon says, most will exceed 25 years of age.